AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are trading 1 cent per bushel higher to start the week. Most contracts were 3 to 4 cents higher on Friday. Nearby September was up 4.1% last week, with higher daily closes in all sessions. Solid exports and drier weather fueled some bottom picking and short covering action. The Friday CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds in corn futures and options adding another 24,947 contracts to their net short position ahead of the rally. That net position stood at -129,323 contracts as of Tuesday.


Soybean futures are steady to fractionally higher this morning. They ended Friday with most contracts 3 to 4 cents higher. Preliminary open interest was up 7,914 contracts. August was up 3.79% on a week that saw only higher daily closes. Nearby soy meal was down $1.90/ton, with soy oil 39 points higher. The NWS 6-10 day outlook is showing odds for cooler and drier weather for much of the Midwest extending into early August. The precipitation could be above normal for the period for the eastern and southern portions of the growing area. Money managers in soybean futures and options added another 5,152 contracts to their CFTC net short position as of July 17, taking it to -58,399 contracts.


Wheat futures are currently 1 to 2 cents higher in the KC and CHI contracts, but up 8 to 9 in Minneapolis spring wheat. They posted 11 to 12 cent gains in most CBT and KC contracts on Friday. MPLS was the bull leader on Friday also, up 16 to 18 1/4 cents. On the week, September saw gains of 3.82% in CBT, with KC up 3.41% and MPLS 4.37% higher. Spec funds in CBT wheat futures and options flipped to a net long position of 3,557 contracts in the week that ended on Tuesday. They were net long 17,928 contracts in KC wheat. Taiwan is seeking 102,775 MT of US wheat in a tender that will close this Thursday. Japan has lifted the temporary ban on Canadian wheat imports following last month’s discovery of some GMO wheat in Canada.


Live cattle futures saw losses of 10 to 40 cents in most contracts on Friday. Nearby was Aug up 2.5 cents on the day and 4.18% higher on the week. Feeder cattle futures were down a nickel to 77.5 cents on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was down 29 cents from the previous day at $148.02 on 7/19. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 635,000 head. That is up 17,000 from the same week last year but down 15,000 head vs. the previous week. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 32 cents to $204.17, while Select boxes were 8 cents higher at $197.00. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed placements 1.3% higher than last year, with marketings up 0.85%. July 1 Cattle on feed was a record for the month at 11.282 million head, up 4.26% from last year. The bi-annual Cattle Inventory report saw all cattle and calves 1% larger than last July 1 at 103.2 million head. Beef cows were up 0.9% with replacement heifers down 2.1% at 4.6 million head. Light cash trade transpired at $113 in NE on Friday afternoon, with $113 bids in TX.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures settled with 80 cent to $1.275 losses in most contracts on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 53 cents on July 18, to $78.62. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.83 on Friday afternoon at $80.86. The national base carcass price was $68.07 in the Friday PM report, down $1.18 from the day prior. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 2.382 million head through Saturday. That is 179,000 head above last year, and up 107,000 head from the week previous on huge Saturday slaughter.


Cotton futures are trading 20 to 50 points lower this morning. They were down 40 to 56 points in the front months on Friday. Sharp losses in the US dollar were offset by more trade news. President Trump is contemplating adding tariffs on the full $500 billion in Chinese goods the US purchases annually because of a lack of progress in negotiations. Thursday’s Cotton on Call report showed mills increasing their unfixed call sales position for December by 562 contracts to 52,774 contracts as of 7/13. The Cotlook A index was down 25 points from the previous day at 97.95 cents/lb on July 18. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 79.50 cents/lb, up 333 points from the week prior.

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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