EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be.

FOLLOW UP TO IS CRUDE DOING A REPEAT? Last Thursday I pointed out that on its weekly chart crude, since early June, has tested the 51.00 level three times. The first two times a rally to at least 60.00followed. Since it tested that level last week for a third time and started to rally again, one would have to ask, would this latest attempt be followed by a follow through rally too? So far that seems to be what it is going to do. Todays action is the strongest indication so far (see crude comment below under energies) that it will. It is also starting to suggest a 1,2,3 bottom formation on not only the daily chart but the weekly as well.

If it does rally, it probably wont be an easy journey. The last rally, in particular, took well over a month to finally top out over 62.50. The first one had its issues too. And this time it has more resistance overhead than before. But if it can follow through, it has the potential to 62.00 again.

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Sell December mini (comex) gold. Sell 1496.00 stop. Protective stop 1522.50. Potential projection 1450.00. (Potential risk $1325. Potential reward $2300). Margin: $1870.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a reversal top last month suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2. The weekly chart has a reversal top and sell signal.
3. On the weekly chart gold failed the 10 avg. last week and an attempt to recover over it this week is failing. Failing that average is negative and could indicate further selloff to the 20 avg. that is lower.
4. The daily has been in a downtrend since the Sept. 4 high. It has had two waves down. The recent rally appears to be the setup for a third wave down.
5. On the daily chart gold closed back under both the 10 & 20 avg. today. Thats negative.
6. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

METALS: Both gold and silver are in near term downtrends on their daily charts. Their recent rallies appear to be the setup for a third wave down.

DEC GOLD: I said it needs to close over 1520.00 to get a rally going. It tested 1520.00 today and failed again. This time it formed an outside day and closed back under both the 10 & 20 avg. on its daily chart. It has been struggling with those averages for over a week without direction. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details.

DEC SILVER: So far yesterdays buy signal is not following through. It remains stuck in a range between 17.400 and 17.850 on a closing basis. Like gold it has had two waves down on its daily chart and the recent attempt to rally this month appears to be the setup for a third wave down. Both long term charts are negative. Taking out 17.305 would negate the buy signal.

DEC COPPER: After yesterdays quiet trading, it sold off today but quickly recovered to rally and break out to the upside. It closed over the 260.00 support. It is now suggesting a rally plua the daily chart now suggests a 1,2,3 bottom formation. This rally would be a second wave up since the Sept. 3 low. Potential projection 274.00. Both long term charts are supportive.


DEC CRUDE OIL: It has been consolidating but today it finally suggested a breakout from that consolidation. It attempted to test the Oct. 3 low of 50.89 again. After getting closer than previous tries today, it rallied aggressively and not only had the highest close since consolidating but also closed over its 10 avg. for the first time since failing it in late Sept. Taking out todays high tomorrow will be triggering a buy on its daily chart. A rally should reach up to 56.00 at least near term.

DEC NATURAL GAS: The sell signal followed through today and is very close to reaching the low of last weeks reversal bottom (2.40). It remains a wait and see. If it fails, it will most likely test 2.35.

CURRENCIES & FINANCIALS: Be aware any direction the foreign currencies may indicate technically. It can be abruptly negated based on what the dollar does.

DEC YEN: Today it failed every average it had succeeded in getting over last week. It has spent all this week taking it all back. It is now sitting on the 93.00 support on its daily chart. Not holding here, suggests a test of 92.50. Keep in mind the weekly has a gap down at 91.61.

DEC SWISS: It downtrend on the daily chart remains intact. This weeks attempt to get over its 20 avg. on its daily chart to attempt a trend change has failed. As of today it is back under both the 10 & 20 avg. If another wave down is starting, 100.29 will be taken out. Major support is down at 100.00.

DEC DOLLAR INDEX: Yesterday it was stuck at the 98.800 resistance. It formed an inside day and that triggered a sell today. It is attempting to hold at its 20 avg. on its daily chart. Starting with 98.200, it has a lot of market support so the outcome of this selling attempt could be short lived.

DEC EUROFX: An inside day yesterday triggered a buy today. It rallied over its 20 avg. Thats positive but it backed off from its high and closed back under the 110.60 market resistance. It is still in a downtrend on its daily chart. If it is starting another wave down, 109.38 will be taken out.

DEC AUSSIE: It formed a huge outside day today on its daily chart. It is attempting to hold the current low of 66.88. If it takes out 67.87 tomorrow, it will be triggering a buy on that chart.

DEC CANADIAN: A huge outside day on its daily chart today. It has been consolidating for over a week and apparently a new low to the consolidation today did not go well with the market it rallied and is now at the high end of the consolidation. It also had the highest close today even though it is still in the consolidation. It is suggesting it will rally further but it has to close over 75.40 for follow through.

DEC S&P: Another huge outside day. It was suggesting further selling yesterday. Today it formed a huge outside day after attempting to initially sell off. Once it sold off, it rallied and is attempting to recover again over both tis 100 and 10 avg. on that chart. If it can have a follow through rally this time (others have failed) it could rally up to 2980.00. Thats into market resistance.


DEC 10 YEAR NOTES: They triggered a sell today. They sold off into some support and are attempting to hold. There should be more selling. Keep stops at 131.270.
Position: Short 131.060 (10.10).
Projection: 130.000.

DEC BONDS: They sold off and are attempting to hold at the 162.00 market support. Their 20 avg. intersects there too. There should be more to the selloff.

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